Prediction market for speculation on collectibles: Kalshi's big bet is Labubus

This partnership marks a significant turning point in the international collectibles market, effectively transforming cultural knowledge into a tradable financial derivative. Through its partnership with StockX Kalshi has the first "product event contracts ," allowing users to bet on the future resale value of items without ever physically handling them.

We will now attempt an analysis of what experts are saying about this new opportunity, the reaction of social media to the “ Labubu ” betting phenomenon, and the financial reality for collectors.

The core proposition: "Financializing the hype"

Instead of buying a pair of Air Jordan 11s for $230 and hoping to resell them for $300, there's another option. You can now buy a contract on the prediction marketplace Kalshi for (hypothetically) $0.60, which pays out $1.00 if the shoes are resold StockX

The first rollout focuses on highly volatile “hype” items: Jordan sneakers, Supreme clothing, Pokémon cards and especially Pop Mart ’s Labubu collectibles .

The mechanism consists of binary options. They predict "yes" or "no" whether the average resale price of an item will reach a defined value by a specific date.

Expert analysis: The “gamblification” of cultural assets

Experts and financial analysts disagree on whether this is a brilliant evolution of the markets or a predatory move into the consumer goods sector.

• The bull case (new asset class) : Financial analysts see this as the maturation of the "passion economy" . This process takes place through the shedding of logistics.
• The Bearfall (predatory and risky) : Critics and cultural commentators see this as the "gambling away" of hobbies.

There is also a regulatory grey area: Although Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC

Furthermore, there are market manipulation risks: There are concerns that “whales” could manipulate StockX Labubu at high prices) to trigger a payout on the much larger market.

Social media chatter: “Labubu” is the main character

The inclusion of Labubu – a furry monster doll from Pop Mart that went viral in Asia – has triggered the most specific engagement on social media.

• The “Mad Libs” reaction: A common sentiment on Twitter and Reddit is disbelief. Users joke that “ betting Labubu sounds like a dystopian “Mad Libs” headline. It highlights the absurdity of applying Wall Street mechanisms to plush toys.
• Collector skepticism: On sneakerhead and collector subreddits (r/sneakers, etc.), the reaction is largely cynical. Genuine collectors often view "investors" as the people who have ruined the hobby by driving up prices. This tool is seen as suitable only for "resellers and gamblers," not for true fans.
• The "degenerate" perspective: In betting circles, this is seen as a new "advantage." Handicappers are already discussing how they can scrape StockX API data to create models for predicting sneaker prices and are treating it like any other prop bet.

ROI Analysis: Betting (Kalshi) vs. Owning (StockX)

For interested collectors or investors, we have compared the risk-reward profile of the two options:

feature	Possession of the physical item (StockX)	Betting on the price (Kalshi)
Entry price	High (Retail price: $00 – $300+)	Low (contract price: $0.01 – $0.99)
Upward potential	Unlimited . If a shoe increases in value from $200 to $1,000, you benefit from the entire increase.	Limited . You can only roughly double your money. The maximum payout is €1.00 per share.
liquidity	Low. You have to find a buyer, ship the product, and pay seller fees (9-10%).	High. You can sell your position immediately before the contract expires.
risk	Inventory risk . It's possible that "bricks" (shoes that don't sell) will take up space.	Binary risk . If the price misses the target by $1, you lose 100% of your investment.
Fees	Shipping + ~10% seller fees.	Exchange fees (lower than for physical shipments).

Our assessment of the profit potential (ROI):

1. For long-term bulls: Physical ownership is still superior, as your upside potential is unlimited. If a Labubu doll becomes the next Beanie Baby and rises by 1000%, the Kalshi bettor only receives their fixed payout, while the physical owner makes a fortune.
2. For short-term traders: Kalshi is superior for hedging or quick speculation. If you're a reseller holding 50 pairs of Jordans, you could bet on "no" with Kalshi to protect yourself against a price drop.

The future prospects

• Market growth : The global collectors market is projected to reach $535 billion by 2033. With the growth of this market, demand for financial hedging instruments (such as Kalshi ) is expected to increase among professional resellers.
• Expansion of “Event Contracts” : Expect this to go beyond sneakers. We will likely soon see contracts for Rolex prices, Hermès bags, and possibly even the resale price of concert tickets (e.g., “Will Oasis tickets be resold for more than $500?”).

What now? What are your chances for the next coup?

We wanted to see what the current implied probability of getting Kalshi for a specific upcoming release (like the next Jordan drop or the Labubu series) is. We wanted to find out what the market thinks it will be worth compared to the retail price.

This is a vivid example of how this new marketplace works in practice. To illustrate this, we live data for PopMart ( Labubu ) and the Black Friday brand rankings to show exactly what the market is currently "thinking".

Here is the breakdown of the implied probabilities from the live Kalshi markets:

The bet on the "Next Big Brand" (Live Market)

One of the most active contracts currently asks: "Besides Nike, Jordan and Adidas, which brand will be the top brand on StockX on Black Friday?"

This is essentially a bet on hype momentum. Here's how the market rated the contenders in the US one week before Black Friday 2025:

Brand (Contender)	Contract Price (“Yes”)	Implicit probability	Market sentiment
Pop Mart (Labubu)	22 ¢	~22 % – 45 %	The favorite . The market currently sees Pop Mart as the strongest competitor to surpass traditional sneaker brands like New Balance or ASICS.
New Balance	10 ¢	~10 %	The underdog . Despite its widespread popularity, the market thinks the Labubu craze will outsell New Balance's resale volume this holiday season.
Pokémon	12 ¢	~12 %	Medium package . Trading cards are experiencing stable volume, but are not expected to surpass the Labubu trend.

Note: Prices in prediction markets fluctuate rapidly. A "yes" price of 22¢ means that traders believe there is approximately a 22% chance that this outcome will occur. If it does, the contract pays out $1.00 (a return of approximately 354%).

The "price target" bet (Labubuexample)

There is also a specific contract for the Pop Mart Labubu “The Monsters Big Into Energy” series.

• The bet : Will the average resale price of this item on StockX be above $130 in November?
• The reality (data) : The current average selling price on StockX is approximately $117.70.
• The implied probability : Since the current price (17) is far below the target price (30) and the supply is widespread, the "yes" contract will trade at a very low price (probably < 5¢).

What this tells you: The market is pessimistic that this particular item will continue to rise this month. Traders are betting that prices have stabilized or will settle down, rather than rising another 10%+ next week.

What this means for you

The betting market confirms that Labubu (Pop Mart) is currently considered the "hottest" alternative asset class and even New Balance in expected trading volume for Black Friday.

The "smart money" perspective: Traders are cautious when it comes to certain price targets. They acknowledge high volume (lots of buying/selling), but they're betting against the price continuing its endless upward climb in the short term.