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Worldwide art market 2023/2024 - Outlook stirs up hopes

Joachim Rodriguez y Romero
Joachim Rodriguez y Romero
Thu., February 1, 2024, 14:54 CET

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market for dealers, gallery owners and art collectors presents us every year This report is considered the most important economic analysis on the condition of the market and gives us a well -founded forecast of future developments.

Most recently, he came out in April 2023 and you may ask yourself at this point: Why is it still worth taking a look at this analysis?

Quite simply: We are now shortly before the turn of the year and a look at the forecasts for 2024 .

The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2023 - a summary

Summarized in one sentence can be drawn as a conclusion:

  • The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2023 - a summary
    • Where do the data come from?
  • Important data and key knowledge
    • Global art market
    • Most important markets
    • Sales channels
    • Disintermediation
    • Difficult year for NFTS and crypto art
  • Outlook for 2024
    • HNWIS more optimistic for art as a stock market
    • Market for art fairs wins on swing

The global art market shows resistance "

The global art market exceeded the level before pandemic in 2022 and recorded growth in global art sales by 3 % to an estimated $ 67.8 billion . The United States experienced the strongest relaxation after pandemic and the British art market brought back to second place, followed by the Chinese market.

Overall, surveys indicated across industries to an optimistic outlook for 2023.

The seventh edition of Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report situation of the global art market in 2022 including the first quarter of 2023. Clare Mcandrew , founder of Arts Economics , and published by Art Basel and UBS.

Where do the data come from?

The report is based on a survey under High Net Worth individuals (HNWIS) , which are defined as people with available household assets of over $ 1 million in 2023. The collector's survey was carried out in a total of 11 regions over a period of three months.

To ensure that the respondents actively participate in the art market, they had to have acquired works of art worth more than $ 10,000 between 2021 and 2023. Through these criteria, participants from the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Japan , the Chinese mainland, Singapore, Italy, Germany, Taiwan Brazil selected the USA and France - all with an average age of around forty years.

Important data and key knowledge

Global art market

The sales figures in the art market at a global level showed an increase of 3 % compared to the previous year and achieved an estimated $ 67.8 billion. In 2019, the market for works of art was above the level before the outbreak of pandemic.

However, there were differences in performance depending on the sector, region and price range. The main factor for the growth of the market value in all sectors in 2022 was still the upper end of the market.

Most important markets

The art market in the United States claimed its leading position worldwide and increased its share of sales from 43 % to 45 % compared to the previous year.

The British market returned to second place with a share of 18 % of total sales, followed by the Chinese market, the share of which decreased from 20 % to 17 %. Among all major art markets, the United States experienced one of the strongest relaxation after pandemic, whereby sales rose to a record value of $ 30.2 billions in the year.

The United Kingdom was able to maintain stable growth and recorded a moderate increase to $ 11.9 billion. This corresponds to an increase of 5% compared to the previous year, but is still below the level before pandemic in 2019 ($ 12.2 billion).

After a strong upswing in 2021, mainland china and Hong Kong a challenging year with regard to their decline in sales of 14%. With a total turnover of $ 11.2 billion, it was still 13% above the year 2020 - the second lowest level since 2009.

Sales channels

Art dealer: In 2022, the sales of the dealers are expected to achieve a value of around $ 37.2 billion, which corresponds to growth of 7 % compared to the previous year. This means that the market recovered in 2019 after the outbreak of pandemic.

Industry surveys also show that dealers with the highest sales had a plus of a whopping 19 % and their average sales have exceeded the $ 10 million mark.

Auctions: In 2022, the auction market impressive sales with a number of record prices.

Apart from these spectacular headlines, the general dynamics of sales were more subdued. Overall, the sales of the auction houses , both public and private, decreased by about 2 % to a total of $ 30.6 billion (compared to the $ 31.2 billion in 2021).

Sales for Christie's, Sotheby's, Phillips and Bonhams H1 2019 - H1 2023
Sales for Christie's, Sotheby's, Phillips and Bonhams H1 2019 - H1 2023
© Arts Economics (2023)

Nevertheless, they were still a remarkable 11 % above the level before the start of pandemic in 2019.

Art fair : In 2022 there was a significant increase in visitor numbers at art fairs . Collectors were ready to personally participate in live events, and galleries presented their works in the same number of trade fairs as on average 2019.

The proportion of sales at art fairs rose from 27 % in 2021 to a considerable 35 % in 2022, but is still below the level before pandemic (42 % in 2019).

Online sales : In 2022, the event market normalized again, which meant that both dealers and auction houses recorded a decline in the e-commerce share in their sales. After two years of extraordinary growth, there was another decline in online sales.

In 2022, sales were only $ 11 billion, a minus of 17 % compared to the previous year and a clear waste from the record of $ 13.3 billion from 2021. Nevertheless, the value was still 85 % higher than in 2019.

Disintermediation

The report also examines the consequences of disintermediation in the art market, a much discussed topic in the past three years. The direct communication and interaction between artists and collectors has increased through online platforms.

However, the effects of disintermediation on the art market have so far been relatively limited. Most expenditure continued via dealers and galleries (30 % direct and another 15 % via art fairs) and 17 % via auctions.

An investigation also showed that 20 % of the expenses were made via external online platforms (6 % via Instagram and 6 % by NFT platforms outside the art market).

Difficult year for NFTS and crypto art

The past three years have seen the rise of platforms that art -related NFTs outside the art market. This was a significant development and interest in NFTS was one of the biggest trends in 2021.

In 2022, however, this market cooled down and the focus was less on rising prices and speculations. It is important to note that transactions via NFT platforms do not flow into the estimated overall ranking of the art market, since they take place outside of galleries, dealers and auction houses.

Nevertheless, an analysis of sales on these platforms shows a quick increase in activity in 2021 followed by a severe decline in 2022.

Sales of art -related NFTS 2019–2023
Sales of art -related NFTS 2019–2023
© Arts Economics, with data from nonfungible.com (2023)

Although the value of art -related NFTs has dropped significantly from the end of 2021, the total turnover in 2022 still almost $ 1.5 billion . This corresponds to a decline of 49 % compared to the previous year, but shows an increase around seventy times compared to the market in 2020 ($ 20 million).

Sotheby’s and Christie’s have set up digital teams because the relationship between artists and dealers has changed through NFTs.

Digital artists can often offer their works directly via auctions and deliver high -quality work despite higher fees.

Although the sales volume goes back, interest in NFTS great and attracts new collectors. In 2021, the average period between purchase and resale of art -related NFTs was only about one month (33 days), while on the art market there was generally an average resale period of 25 to even 30 years.

Outlook for 2024

According to the survey of Art Economics and UBS, 77% of the wealthy art collectors are optimistic about the global art market in 2023 and for the first few months in 2024.

A majority of 55% even plans to acquire works of art by spring 2024. It is particularly noteworthy that this proportion is even 65% in important markets such as the USA. Collectors from mainland china were particularly active in their purchase plans, with 68 % information to buy works. A large majority from Japan, Brazil and Italy also showed interest in buying art.

HNW collecting intentions for purchases and sales from art until April 2024 to region
HNW collector intentions for purchases and sales from art until April 2024 according to region
© arts Economics (2023)

In addition, 45% of the dealers expect an increase in their sales for this period, while 10% predict a significant improvement.

In the auction sector, surveys among medium-sized companies also show positive results: 48% here expect an increase in sales and 60% with an increase in online sales.

Paintings were still the preferred choice with an approval rate of 84 %. Sculptures and work on paper followed in second and third place.

Share of HNW collectors' expenditure for art according to medium in 2023
Share of HNW collectors' expenditure for art according to medium in 2023
© Arts Economics (2023)

In contrast to the purchase, only 26 % of the collectors planned to sell works (until April 2024) from their collection within the next twelve months - compared to the 39 % of the previous year. Most stated that they would hesitate to sell because they are convinced that the prices for their artists' works of art will improve in the future.

HNWIS more optimistic for art as a stock market

Despite the continued unrest in the financial sector, the strong inflation, the persistent effects of three years of Covid-19 and the constant war in Ukraine, 77 % of the wealthy art collectors were confident about the future upswing on the art market in the coming months.

Short-term outlook for the global art and stock markets
Short-term outlook for the global art and stock markets
© Arts Economics (2023)

This proportion was somewhat higher than those who had optimism for the stock market (74 %).

Market for art fairs wins on swing

According to the effects of pandemic, the market for art fairs have slowly gained drive. There are reports that indicate that collectors, galleries and artists are more involved in exhibitions, trade fairs and similar events.

With regard to 2024, almost all collectors (92 %) plan to continue to visit art -related exhibitions and events, either as much as before or even more. Only a small minority of 4 % indicates that you want to reduce your participation.

Especially in Great Britain, the majority of collectors (63 %) hope to be able to attend even more events.

As far as international trips are concerned at exhibitions, trade fairs or other art -related events, 66 % of those surveyed would like to travel more often in the next year than this year.

Only a stable proportion of 12 % plans to make fewer trips. The main reasons for this are increasing costs for trips abroad and less interest in events and exhibitions abroad.

In addition, the endeavor also plays a role to reduce ecological footprint through less travel activity. The survey also shows a consciousness among the collectors surveyed for the sustainability of the art market and its thoughts. A large majority (72%) are of the opinion that the transport of works of art could be made more sustainable and alternative delivery methods for air traffic should be used- if available- such as sea or country path.

Owner and managing director of Kunstplaza . Publicist, editor and passionate blogger in the field of art, design and creativity since 2011.
Joachim Rodriguez y Romero

Owner and managing director of Kunstplaza . Publicist, editor and passionate blogger in the field of art, design and creativity since 2011. Successful conclusion in web design as part of a university degree (2008). Further development of creativity techniques through courses in free drawing, expression painting and theatre/acting. Profound knowledge of the art market through many years of journalistic research and numerous collaborations with actors/institutions from art and culture.

www. kunstplaza .de/

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A basic need for every artistically creating person should be able to live from his art.

In order to secure your own existence, it is essential to make money with art . In fact, contrary to the majority perception, many artists can live well from their creative work these days. Nevertheless, a vast majority of all freelance artists are dependent on further sources of income (e.g. giving courses, order work, part -time jobs, etc.).

The recognition as an artist often does not yet bring any direct financial security. Therefore, artists are often life artists at the same time.

However, the possibilities of being able to live on your own art have grown greatly through the Internet and social media. As an artist, however, you have to be versatile and flexible to be successful. A certain degree of perseverance is also essential.

Customer care and self -marketing are also important pillars for success as an artist .

In this section we have numerous contributions, information, tips and advice, which should help you live from your art.

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